

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 53.34%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Arouca |
| 53.34% ( | 24.97% ( | 21.69% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.2% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.37% ( | 53.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.87% ( | 75.13% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.92% ( | 20.08% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.67% ( | 52.33% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.32% ( | 39.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.64% ( | 76.36% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.79% ( 2-0 @ 10.26% ( 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 3-0 @ 5.49% ( 3-1 @ 5.08% ( 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 4-0 @ 2.21% ( 4-1 @ 2.04% ( 4-2 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.68% Total : 53.33% | 1-1 @ 11.82% ( 0-0 @ 7.97% ( 2-2 @ 4.39% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.97% | 0-1 @ 7.37% ( 1-2 @ 5.47% ( 0-2 @ 3.4% ( 1-3 @ 1.68% ( 2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0-3 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 1.37% Total : 21.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 79 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 48 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 19 |
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