Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 45.12%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Arouca |
| 45.12% ( | 25.99% ( | 28.89% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.86% ( | 52.14% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.14% ( | 73.85% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.95% ( | 23.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.13% ( | 56.87% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.38% ( | 32.61% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.84% ( | 69.15% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 11.03% ( 2-1 @ 9.07% ( 2-0 @ 8.1% ( 3-1 @ 4.44% ( 3-0 @ 3.96% ( 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 4-0 @ 1.45% ( 4-2 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 45.12% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.98% | 0-1 @ 8.42% ( 1-2 @ 6.92% ( 0-2 @ 4.72% ( 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0-3 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 2.59% Total : 28.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 3 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Vizela | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 39 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 35 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 29 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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