Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.47%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
| 37.72% ( | 30.06% ( | 32.22% ( |
| Both teams to score 41.72% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.51% ( | 65.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.77% ( | 84.23% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.5% ( | 33.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.87% ( | 70.13% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.73% ( | 37.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.94% ( | 74.06% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 13.65% ( 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 2-1 @ 7.37% ( 3-0 @ 2.72% ( 3-1 @ 2.69% ( 3-2 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 2.49% Total : 37.71% | 1-1 @ 13.47% ( 0-0 @ 12.48% ( 2-2 @ 3.64% ( Other @ 0.47% Total : 30.05% | 0-1 @ 12.32% ( 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0-2 @ 6.08% ( 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0-3 @ 2% ( 2-3 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 1.78% Total : 32.22% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 26 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 14 | 53 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 17 | 39 | 61 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 59 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 41 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 |
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