Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
| 40.33% ( | 28.1% ( | 31.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.83% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.86% ( | 59.14% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.43% ( | 79.58% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.29% ( | 28.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.46% ( | 64.55% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( | 34.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29% ( | 71.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.29% ( 2-1 @ 8.2% ( 2-0 @ 7.67% ( 3-1 @ 3.41% ( 3-0 @ 3.19% ( 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 4-0 @ 1% ( Other @ 1.68% Total : 40.32% | 1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.85% ( 2-2 @ 4.39% ( Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.1% | 0-1 @ 10.54% ( 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0-2 @ 5.64% ( 1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 2-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 31.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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