| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Braga | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| 2 | Benfica | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 81.96%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 5.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.87%) and 1-0 (11.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 81.96% ( | 12.69% ( | 5.35% ( |
| Both teams to score 37.93% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.7% ( | 39.29% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.37% ( | 61.63% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.66% ( | 7.34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.48% ( | 26.51% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 40.94% ( | 59.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 9.84% ( | 90.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 2-0 @ 14.78% ( 3-0 @ 12.87% ( 1-0 @ 11.32% ( 4-0 @ 8.41% ( 2-1 @ 7.79% ( 3-1 @ 6.78% ( 4-1 @ 4.43% ( 5-0 @ 4.39% ( 5-1 @ 2.31% ( 6-0 @ 1.91% ( 3-2 @ 1.79% ( 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 6-1 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.01% Total : 81.94% | 1-1 @ 5.96% ( 0-0 @ 4.34% ( 2-2 @ 2.05% ( Other @ 0.34% Total : 12.69% | 0-1 @ 2.28% ( 1-2 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 1.5% Total : 5.35% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Braga | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 40 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 32 |
| 5 | Casa Pia | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 24 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Vizela | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 21 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 21 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 20 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 18 |
| 15 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 18 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 18 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 34 | -24 | 6 |
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