| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Boavista | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Boavista | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.88%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 10.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.56%) and 1-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.55%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
| 73.88% ( | 16.02% ( | 10.11% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.16% ( | 36.84% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.99% ( | 59.01% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.45% ( | 8.55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.43% ( | 29.57% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.91% ( | 45.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19% ( | 81% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 11.65% ( 3-0 @ 9.56% ( 1-0 @ 9.48% ( 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 3-1 @ 7.61% ( 4-0 @ 5.88% ( 4-1 @ 4.68% ( 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 5-0 @ 2.89% ( 5-1 @ 2.3% ( 4-2 @ 1.86% ( 6-0 @ 1.19% 6-1 @ 0.94% ( 5-2 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.6% Total : 73.87% | 1-1 @ 7.55% ( 0-0 @ 3.86% ( 2-2 @ 3.7% ( Other @ 0.91% Total : 16.02% | 0-1 @ 3.07% ( 1-2 @ 3.01% ( 0-2 @ 1.22% ( 2-3 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 1.83% Total : 10.11% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Braga | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 40 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 32 |
| 5 | Casa Pia | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 |
| 8 | Vizela | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 24 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 24 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 21 |
| 12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 21 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 19 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 9 |
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