Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.