Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
61.92% | 22.11% | 15.97% |
Both teams to score 47.02% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.87% | 50.13% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.9% | 72.1% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.32% | 15.67% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.28% | 44.72% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.76% | 44.24% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.68% | 80.32% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 12.84% 2-0 @ 11.9% 2-1 @ 9.71% 3-0 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 6% 4-0 @ 3.41% 4-1 @ 2.78% 3-2 @ 2.45% 5-0 @ 1.26% 4-2 @ 1.13% 5-1 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.04% Total : 61.91% | 1-1 @ 10.48% 0-0 @ 6.93% 2-2 @ 3.96% Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.11% | 0-1 @ 5.66% 1-2 @ 4.27% 0-2 @ 2.31% 1-3 @ 1.16% 2-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 1.5% Total : 15.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 47 |
2 | Braga | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 40 |
3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 39 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 32 |
5 | Casa Pia | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 30 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 27 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 |
8 | Vizela | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 24 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 24 |
10 | ChavesChaves | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 21 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 21 |
13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 20 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 19 |
15 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 14 |
17 | Maritimo | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 13 |
18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 9 |
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