Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 57.08%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 20.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.49%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Spartak Moscow win it was 1-2 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.