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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 17 | 4 | 27 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 17 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 17 | 1 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 16 | 2 | 21 |
| 8 | Atlanta United | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Toronto | 17 | -8 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 48.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 25.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United |
| 48.85% ( | 26.11% ( | 25.04% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.57% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.01% ( | 54.99% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.73% ( | 76.26% ( |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.45% ( | 22.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.87% ( | 56.13% ( |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.71% ( | 37.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.93% ( | 74.07% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United |
| 1-0 @ 12.52% ( 2-0 @ 9.33% ( 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 3-0 @ 4.63% ( 3-1 @ 4.57% ( 3-2 @ 2.25% ( 4-0 @ 1.73% ( 4-1 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 2.92% Total : 48.85% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0-0 @ 8.41% ( 2-2 @ 4.54% ( Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.11% | 0-1 @ 8.29% ( 1-2 @ 6.09% ( 0-2 @ 4.09% ( 1-3 @ 2% ( 2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0-3 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 1.72% Total : 25.04% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | New England RevolutionNew England | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Nashville SCNashville | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | New York City FCNY City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Toronto | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | DC United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Dallas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Austin FCAustin | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Houston DynamoHouston | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Portland TimbersPortland | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 |
