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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Orlando City | 14 | -3 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlanta United | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 13 | 1 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 14 | -7 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 67.16%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 13.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.01%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atlanta United | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 67.16% | 19.04% | 13.8% |
| Both teams to score 51.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.72% | 41.27% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.33% | 63.67% |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.64% | 11.35% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.94% | 36.06% |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.17% | 41.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.72% | 78.28% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atlanta United | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 2-0 @ 11.23% 1-0 @ 10.33% 2-1 @ 9.8% 3-0 @ 8.15% 3-1 @ 7.11% 4-0 @ 4.43% 4-1 @ 3.86% 3-2 @ 3.1% 5-0 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.68% 5-1 @ 1.68% Other @ 3.85% Total : 67.15% | 1-1 @ 9.01% 0-0 @ 4.75% 2-2 @ 4.27% Other @ 1.02% Total : 19.04% | 0-1 @ 4.14% 1-2 @ 3.93% 0-2 @ 1.8% 2-3 @ 1.24% 1-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.54% Total : 13.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 30 |
| 2 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 25 |
| 3 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
| 4 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | DC United | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 10 | New York City FCNY City | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | CF MontrealMontreal | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Toronto | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 13 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | St Louis City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Dallas | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Houston DynamoHouston | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 12 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 9 |
