Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 39.44%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.