| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | -9 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 50.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for DC United had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | DC United |
| 50.87% ( | 25.72% ( | 23.4% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.08% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.17% ( | 54.82% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.87% ( | 76.12% ( |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.41% ( | 21.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.31% ( | 54.68% ( |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.32% ( | 38.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.58% ( | 75.42% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | DC United |
| 1-0 @ 12.8% ( 2-0 @ 9.81% ( 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 3-0 @ 5.01% ( 3-1 @ 4.76% ( 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 4-0 @ 1.92% ( 4-1 @ 1.83% ( Other @ 3.15% Total : 50.87% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0-0 @ 8.35% ( 2-2 @ 4.43% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.71% | 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 1-2 @ 5.78% ( 0-2 @ 3.77% ( 1-3 @ 1.83% ( 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 1.51% Total : 23.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 18 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | New York City FCNY City | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | CF MontrealMontreal | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 40 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 37 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | New England RevolutionNew England | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 30 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 30 |
| 11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 29 |
| 12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | Toronto | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 26 |
| 14 | DC United | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 18 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | New York City FCNY City | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 24 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | CF MontrealMontreal | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 40 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 37 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | New England RevolutionNew England | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 30 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 30 |
| 11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 29 |
| 12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | Toronto | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 26 |
| 14 | DC United | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |