

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Boavista | 
| 41.17% ( | 26.84% ( | 31.99% ( | 
| Both teams to score 50.66% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 45.64% ( | 54.36% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 24.26% ( | 75.74% ( | 
| Maritimo Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.99% ( | 26% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.97% ( | 61.03% ( | 
| Boavista Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.46% ( | 31.54% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.06% ( | 67.93% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Maritimo | Draw | Boavista | 
| 1-0 @ 11.04% 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 2-0 @ 7.44% ( 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 3-0 @ 3.34% ( 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 4-0 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 2.25% Total : 41.16%  | 1-1 @ 12.74% 0-0 @ 8.2% ( 2-2 @ 4.95% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.84%  | 0-1 @ 9.46% ( 1-2 @ 7.36% ( 0-2 @ 5.46% ( 1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 2-3 @ 1.91% ( Other @ 2.87% Total : 31.99%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 | 
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 | 
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 | 
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 | 
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 | 
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 | 
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 | 
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 | 
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 | 
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 | 
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 | 
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 | 
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 | 
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