Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 42.23%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.25%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Maritimo |
| 42.23% | 29.29% | 28.47% |
| Both teams to score 42.42% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.99% | 64.01% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.8% | 83.19% |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.97% | 30.03% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.84% | 66.15% |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.63% | 39.37% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.93% | 76.07% |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 14.22% 2-0 @ 8.55% 2-1 @ 7.98% 3-0 @ 3.43% 3-1 @ 3.2% 3-2 @ 1.49% 4-0 @ 1.03% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.37% Total : 42.23% | 1-1 @ 13.25% 0-0 @ 11.82% 2-2 @ 3.72% Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.28% | 0-1 @ 11.02% 1-2 @ 6.18% 0-2 @ 5.14% 1-3 @ 1.92% 0-3 @ 1.6% 2-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 1.47% Total : 28.47% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 |
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