Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 46.33%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 24.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.86%) and 1-2 (8.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Maritimo win it was 1-0 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Famalicao | 
| 24.36% | 29.31% | 46.33% | 
| Both teams to score 39.84% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 34.12% | 65.88% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 15.5% | 84.5% | 
| Maritimo Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 55.89% | 44.11% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.79% | 80.21% | 
| Famalicao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.28% | 28.72% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.44% | 64.55% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Maritimo | Draw | Famalicao | 
| 1-0 @ 10.37% 2-1 @ 5.29% 2-0 @ 4.24% 3-1 @ 1.45% 3-0 @ 1.16% 3-2 @ 0.9% Other @ 0.95% Total : 24.36% | 1-1 @ 12.93% 0-0 @ 12.66% 2-2 @ 3.3% Other @ 0.4% Total : 29.29% | 0-1 @ 15.8% 0-2 @ 9.86% 1-2 @ 8.07% 0-3 @ 4.1% 1-3 @ 3.36% 2-3 @ 1.37% 0-4 @ 1.28% 1-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.45% Total : 46.33% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 | 
| 2 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 | 
| 3 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 | 
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 | 
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 | 
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 | 
| 8 | Vizela | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 39 | 
| 9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 | 
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 | 
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 | 
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 35 | 
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 | 
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 | 
| 16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 | 
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 | 
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