

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 26.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 48.05% ( | 25.38% ( | 26.57% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.08% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.93% ( | 51.06% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.08% ( | 72.92% ( |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.74% | 21.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.81% ( | 54.18% ( |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.14% ( | 33.86% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.47% ( | 70.52% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.14% ( 2-1 @ 9.34% 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 3-1 @ 4.82% 3-0 @ 4.45% ( 3-2 @ 2.61% ( 4-1 @ 1.87% 4-0 @ 1.72% ( 4-2 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.45% Total : 48.05% | 1-1 @ 12.07% 0-0 @ 7.2% ( 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 3-3 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.8% 1-2 @ 6.54% ( 0-2 @ 4.22% ( 1-3 @ 2.36% ( 2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0-3 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 26.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 |
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 |
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 |
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 |
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 |
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 |
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 |
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 |
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 |
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 |
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 |
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