Both among the lowest scorers in Serie A this season, Saturday's derby could go to the wire - particularly as Sampdoria and Spezia are among the three sides that have conceded the most goals during the second half.
A lapse in concentration rather than a moment of glory may see the points' destiny decided, and Samp can finally give their long-suffering fans something to cheer about.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 40.91%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
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