

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 71.28%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 12.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 3-0 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 71.28% ( | 16.53% ( | 12.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.09% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.89% ( | 33.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.14% ( | 54.85% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.8% ( | 8.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.29% ( | 28.71% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.1% ( | 38.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.37% ( | 75.63% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-0 @ 9.98% ( 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 3-0 @ 8.32% ( 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 3-1 @ 7.85% ( 4-0 @ 5.2% ( 4-1 @ 4.91% ( 3-2 @ 3.71% ( 5-0 @ 2.6% ( 5-1 @ 2.46% ( 4-2 @ 2.32% ( 5-2 @ 1.16% ( 6-0 @ 1.08% ( 6-1 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 3.28% Total : 71.28% | 1-1 @ 7.53% ( 2-2 @ 4.45% ( 0-0 @ 3.19% ( 3-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 16.53% | 1-2 @ 3.56% ( 0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0-2 @ 1.42% ( 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 1-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 1.68% Total : 12.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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