Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Barnsley | 
| 37.57% ( | 26.22% ( | 36.21% ( | 
| Both teams to score 53.49% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.88% ( | 51.12% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.03% ( | 72.97% ( | 
| Bolton Wanderers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.52% ( | 26.47% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.34% ( | 61.66% ( | 
| Barnsley Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.74% ( | 27.25% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.32% ( | 62.68% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Barnsley | 
| 1-0 @ 9.59% ( 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 2-0 @ 6.37% ( 3-1 @ 3.67% ( 3-0 @ 2.82% ( 3-2 @ 2.39% ( 4-1 @ 1.22% ( 4-0 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.57%  | 1-1 @ 12.46% ( 0-0 @ 7.22% ( 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 3-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.21%  | 0-1 @ 9.38% ( 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0-2 @ 6.1% ( 1-3 @ 3.51% ( 0-3 @ 2.64% ( 2-3 @ 2.33% ( 1-4 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 3.01% Total : 36.21%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 47 | 35 | 101 | 
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 101 | 35 | 66 | 98 | 
| P | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 96 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 86 | 
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 36 | 26 | 81 | 
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 76 | 
| 8 | Portsmouth | 46 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 11 | 70 | 
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 69 | 
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 62 | 
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 62 | 
| 12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 59 | 
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 58 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 56 | 
| 15 | Burton Albion | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 56 | 
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 54 | 
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 73 | -15 | 53 | 
| 18 | Port Vale | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 49 | 
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | 
| 20 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 46 | 
| R | MK Dons | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 45 | 
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 44 | 
| R | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 44 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 89 | -58 | 27 | 
| > League One Full Table | |||||||||
