

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 50.25%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 24.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a MK Dons win it was 1-0 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Barnsley |
| 24.76% ( | 24.98% ( | 50.25% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.64% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.16% ( | 50.83% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.28% ( | 72.71% ( |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.75% ( | 35.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.99% ( | 72% ( |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.76% ( | 20.24% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.43% ( | 52.56% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Barnsley |
| 1-0 @ 7.44% ( 2-1 @ 6.2% ( 2-0 @ 3.88% ( 3-1 @ 2.15% ( 3-2 @ 1.72% ( 3-0 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 2.03% Total : 24.76% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0-0 @ 7.13% ( 2-2 @ 4.95% ( 3-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.98% | 0-1 @ 11.39% ( 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0-2 @ 9.1% ( 1-3 @ 5.06% ( 0-3 @ 4.85% ( 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 1-4 @ 2.02% ( 0-4 @ 1.94% ( 2-4 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 50.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 82 | 47 | 35 | 101 |
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 101 | 35 | 66 | 98 |
| P | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 96 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 86 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 62 | 36 | 26 | 81 |
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 76 |
| 8 | Portsmouth | 46 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 61 | 50 | 11 | 70 |
| 9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 69 |
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 62 |
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 62 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 59 |
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 58 |
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 56 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 56 |
| 16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 54 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 73 | -15 | 53 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 49 |
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 |
| 20 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 46 |
| R | MK Dons | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 45 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 44 |
| R | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 77 | -37 | 44 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 89 | -58 | 27 |
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