Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 45.26%. A win for Western United had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Western United |
| 45.26% ( | 23.46% ( | 31.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.73% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.19% ( | 39.81% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.83% ( | 62.16% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.08% ( | 17.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.27% ( | 48.72% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.21% ( | 24.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.64% ( | 59.36% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.16% ( 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 2-0 @ 6.57% ( 3-1 @ 5.25% ( 3-0 @ 3.76% ( 3-2 @ 3.66% ( 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 4-2 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 3.78% Total : 45.26% | 1-1 @ 10.65% ( 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.44% ( 3-3 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.46% | 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0-1 @ 6.2% ( 0-2 @ 4.32% ( 1-3 @ 3.45% ( 2-3 @ 2.97% ( 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 1-4 @ 1.2% ( 2-4 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 2.66% Total : 31.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 49 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 38 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 38 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 29 |
| 8 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 28 |
| 10 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 25 |
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