

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 82.99%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 5.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.06%) and 1-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.5%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Maritimo |
| 82.99% ( | 11.58% ( | 5.44% ( |
| Both teams to score 43.24% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.13% ( | 32.87% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.43% ( | 54.57% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.18% ( | 5.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 77.62% ( | 22.38% ( |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.91% ( | 54.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.67% ( | 87.33% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Maritimo |
| 2-0 @ 12.73% ( 3-0 @ 12.06% 1-0 @ 8.95% ( 4-0 @ 8.58% ( 2-1 @ 7.82% ( 3-1 @ 7.42% ( 4-1 @ 5.27% ( 5-0 @ 4.88% ( 5-1 @ 3% ( 6-0 @ 2.31% ( 3-2 @ 2.28% ( 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 6-1 @ 1.42% ( 7-0 @ 0.94% ( 5-2 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 82.98% | 1-1 @ 5.5% ( 0-0 @ 3.15% ( 2-2 @ 2.4% Other @ 0.52% Total : 11.58% | 0-1 @ 1.94% ( 1-2 @ 1.69% ( Other @ 1.81% Total : 5.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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