

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Newcastle United | 
| 35.2% ( | 25.41% ( | 39.38% ( | 
| Both teams to score 56.13% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 52.31% ( | 47.69% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30.12% ( | 69.88% ( | 
| Chelsea Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.78% ( | 26.22% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.68% ( | 61.32% ( | 
| Newcastle United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 76.08% ( | 23.92% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.86% ( | 58.14% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Chelsea | Draw | Newcastle United | 
| 1-0 @ 8.4% ( 2-1 @ 8.04% ( 2-0 @ 5.62% ( 3-1 @ 3.59% ( 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 3-0 @ 2.51% ( 4-1 @ 1.2% Other @ 3.29% Total : 35.2%  | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( 0-0 @ 6.27% ( 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 3-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.41%  | 0-1 @ 8.97% 1-2 @ 8.59% ( 0-2 @ 6.42% ( 1-3 @ 4.1% ( 0-3 @ 3.06% ( 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 1-4 @ 1.47% ( 0-4 @ 1.09% ( 2-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 1.97% Total : 39.38%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 | 
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 | 
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 | 
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 | 
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 | 
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 | 
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 | 
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 | 
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 | 
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 | 
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 | 
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 | 
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 | 
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 | 
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 | 
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 | 
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 | 
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 | 
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 | 
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 | 
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