Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 55.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.02%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
20.98% (![]() | 23.57% (![]() | 55.45% (![]() |
Both teams to score 51.43% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.15% (![]() | 48.85% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.05% (![]() | 70.95% (![]() |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.32% (![]() | 37.68% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.54% (![]() | 74.46% (![]() |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% (![]() | 17.47% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.06% (![]() | 47.95% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 6.42% (![]() 2-1 @ 5.47% 2-0 @ 3.14% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 1.78% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 1.55% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 1.6% Total : 20.98% | 1-1 @ 11.2% (![]() 0-0 @ 6.58% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.77% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.9% ( ![]() Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 11.48% (![]() 0-2 @ 10.02% ( ![]() 1-2 @ 9.78% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 5.83% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 5.69% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.78% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 2.54% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 2.48% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.21% ( ![]() Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |