Aside from last year, Red Bull Arena has not been kind to the Boys in Blue, but NYCFC have not played as poorly on the road as their record indicates, and things in this league have a way of eventually evening themselves out.
The Red Bulls have not shown nearly enough when in possession to suggest that they have fixed their attacking frailties, and we believe the Pigeons will be able to find a way through a side that are about as low as we have seen domestically in quite some time.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 48.23%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 25.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (8.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for New York Red Bulls in this match.
1.07) 
-0.13) 
