Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 53.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 22.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.