| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 26 | 8 | 46 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 25 | 5 | 35 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Inter Miami | 26 | -4 | 36 |
| 6 | Orlando City | 26 | -7 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 58.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Inter Miami |
| 58.15% ( | 23.93% ( | 17.92% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.54% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.83% ( | 54.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.42% ( | 75.58% ( |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.56% ( | 18.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.39% ( | 49.6% ( |
| Inter Miami Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.83% ( | 44.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.74% ( | 80.25% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Inter Miami |
| 1-0 @ 13.76% ( 2-0 @ 11.63% ( 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 3-0 @ 6.56% ( 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 4-0 @ 2.77% ( 4-1 @ 2.27% ( 3-2 @ 2.19% ( 5-0 @ 0.94% ( 4-2 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 58.14% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( 0-0 @ 8.14% ( 2-2 @ 3.89% ( Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.93% | 0-1 @ 6.65% ( 1-2 @ 4.6% ( 0-2 @ 2.72% ( 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 2-3 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 1.64% Total : 17.92% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 26 | 42 | 64 |
| 2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 49 | 11 | 62 |
| 3 | New York City FCNY City | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 52 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 48 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 33 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 46 |
| 8 | Orlando City | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 45 |
| 9 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 33 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 42 |
| 10 | New England RevolutionNew England | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
| 11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 38 |
| 13 | Toronto | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 62 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | DC United | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 27 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 26 | 42 | 64 |
| 2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 33 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 49 | 11 | 62 |
| 3 | New York City FCNY City | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 52 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 48 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 33 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 46 |
| 8 | Orlando City | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 45 |
| 9 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 33 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 42 |
| 10 | New England RevolutionNew England | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
| 11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 38 |
| 13 | Toronto | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 62 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | DC United | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 27 |
