Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.