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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Salt Lake | 19 | 0 | 30 | 
| 2 | Dallas | 19 | 7 | 28 | 
| 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 3 | 27 | 
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 20 | 7 | 33 | 
| 3 | New York City FC | 18 | 17 | 32 | 
| 4 | CF Montreal | 19 | -2 | 29 | 
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dallas | Draw | New York City FC | 
| 39.78% (  0.18) | 24.84% (  0.13) | 35.37% (  -0.31) | 
| Both teams to score 58.16% (  -0.52) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.92% (  -0.66) | 45.07% (  0.66) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.57% (  -0.63) | 67.42% (  0.63) | 
| Dallas Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.44% (  -0.2) | 22.56% (  0.2) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.84% (  -0.3) | 56.15% (  0.3) | 
| New York City FC Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.1% (  -0.48) | 24.9% (  0.48) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.49% (  -0.67) | 59.51% (  0.67) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Dallas | Draw | New York City FC | 
| 2-1 @ 8.66% (  0.02) 1-0 @ 8.36% (  0.18) 2-0 @ 6.23% (  0.1) 3-1 @ 4.3% (  -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.09% (  0.03) 3-2 @ 2.99% (  -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.6% (  -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.15% (  0) 4-2 @ 1.11% (  -0.03) Other @ 2.3% Total : 39.78% | 1-1 @ 11.62% (  0.09) 2-2 @ 6.02% (  -0.07) 0-0 @ 5.62% (  0.16) 3-3 @ 1.39% (  -0.04) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.84% | 1-2 @ 8.09% (  -0.04) 0-1 @ 7.81% (  0.11) 0-2 @ 5.43% (  0) 1-3 @ 3.75% (  -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.79% (  -0.07) 0-3 @ 2.52% (  -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.3% (  -0.04) 2-4 @ 0.97% (  -0.04) Other @ 2.72% Total : 35.37% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New England RevolutionNew England | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 
| 3 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 
| 4 | New York City FCNY City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 
| 7 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 
| 8 | DC United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 | 
| 9 | Orlando City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 | 
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 
| 11 | Toronto | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 | 
| 12 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 | 
| 13 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | 
| 14 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 6 | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 19 | 
| 2 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 
| 3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 
| 4 | Dallas | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 
| 6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 
| 7 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 
| 8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 
| 9 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 | 
| 10 | Portland TimbersPortland | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 | 
| 11 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 | 
| 12 | Austin FCAustin | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 8 | 
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | 
| 14 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
