| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Colorado Rapids | 14 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York City FC | 13 | 16 | 26 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for New York City FC in this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | New York City FC |
| 31.89% ( | 25.17% ( | 42.94% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.61% ( | 47.39% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.39% ( | 69.61% ( |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.89% ( | 28.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.21% ( | 63.79% ( |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.96% ( | 22.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.63% ( | 55.37% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 7.86% ( 2-1 @ 7.54% ( 2-0 @ 4.99% ( 3-1 @ 3.19% ( 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 3-0 @ 2.11% ( 4-1 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 31.89% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 3-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 9.37% ( 1-2 @ 8.99% ( 0-2 @ 7.09% ( 1-3 @ 4.53% ( 0-3 @ 3.57% ( 2-3 @ 2.88% ( 1-4 @ 1.71% ( 0-4 @ 1.35% ( 2-4 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 42.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 33 | 15 | 18 | 39 |
| 2 | New York City FCNY City | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 38 | 21 | 17 | 35 |
| 3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 33 |
| 4 | CF MontrealMontreal | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 32 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 29 |
| 6 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 26 |
| 8 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 26 |
| 9 | New England RevolutionNew England | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 25 |
| 10 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Toronto | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 19 |
| 14 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 18 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 33 | 15 | 18 | 39 |
| 2 | New York City FCNY City | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 38 | 21 | 17 | 35 |
| 3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 33 |
| 4 | CF MontrealMontreal | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 32 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 29 |
| 6 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 26 |
| 8 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 26 |
| 9 | New England RevolutionNew England | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 25 |
| 10 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Toronto | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 19 |
| 14 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 18 |