Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 45.94%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 27.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Maritimo |
| 45.94% ( | 26.43% ( | 27.63% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.71% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.46% ( | 54.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.11% ( | 75.88% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.31% ( | 23.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.2% ( | 57.8% ( |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.14% ( | 34.86% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.4% ( | 71.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 11.89% 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 2-0 @ 8.56% ( 3-1 @ 4.33% ( 3-0 @ 4.11% ( 3-2 @ 2.28% ( 4-1 @ 1.56% ( 4-0 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 2.69% Total : 45.94% | 1-1 @ 12.53% ( 0-0 @ 8.26% ( 2-2 @ 4.76% ( Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.43% | 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 1-2 @ 6.6% ( 0-2 @ 4.59% ( 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0-3 @ 1.61% ( Other @ 2.13% Total : 27.63% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 |
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