Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 52.27%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Maritimo |
| 52.27% ( | 25.5% ( | 22.24% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.4% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.96% ( | 55.04% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.7% ( | 76.3% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.91% ( | 21.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.09% ( | 53.91% ( |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.07% ( | 39.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.41% ( | 76.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 13.1% 2-0 @ 10.2% ( 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 3-0 @ 5.29% ( 3-1 @ 4.86% ( 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 4-0 @ 2.06% ( 4-1 @ 1.89% ( Other @ 3.27% Total : 52.26% | 1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 8.42% ( 2-2 @ 4.3% Other @ 0.75% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 7.73% ( 1-2 @ 5.52% ( 0-2 @ 3.55% ( 1-3 @ 1.69% ( 2-3 @ 1.32% 0-3 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 1.35% Total : 22.24% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 16 | 52 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 18 | 40 | 64 |
| 3 | Braga | 27 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 36 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 15 |
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