Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 55.18%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Portimonense in this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 55.18% ( | 25.31% ( | 19.52% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.37% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.86% ( | 57.14% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.99% ( | 78% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.26% ( | 20.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.64% ( | 53.36% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.97% ( | 44.03% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.86% ( | 80.14% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 1-0 @ 14.36% ( 2-0 @ 11.29% ( 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 3-0 @ 5.93% ( 3-1 @ 4.86% ( 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 4-1 @ 1.91% ( Other @ 3.22% Total : 55.16% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0-0 @ 9.13% ( 2-2 @ 3.8% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 25.3% | 0-1 @ 7.49% ( 1-2 @ 4.83% ( 0-2 @ 3.07% ( 1-3 @ 1.32% ( 2-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 1.76% Total : 19.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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