

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 31.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 41.1% ( | 27.71% ( | 31.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.82% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.16% ( | 57.84% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.44% ( | 78.56% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( | 27.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.79% ( | 63.21% ( |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.1% ( | 33.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.43% ( | 70.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 1-0 @ 12.05% ( 2-1 @ 8.38% ( 2-0 @ 7.74% ( 3-1 @ 3.59% ( 3-0 @ 3.32% ( 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 4-0 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 1.86% Total : 41.1% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0-0 @ 9.38% ( 2-2 @ 4.53% ( Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 10.14% ( 1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0-2 @ 5.49% ( 1-3 @ 2.54% 0-3 @ 1.98% ( 2-3 @ 1.63% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 31.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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