

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 36.97%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 35.45% ( | 27.58% ( | 36.97% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.31% ( | 56.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.35% ( | 77.65% ( |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.57% ( | 30.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.36% ( | 66.63% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.51% ( | 29.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.5% ( | 65.5% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 10.67% ( 2-1 @ 7.76% ( 2-0 @ 6.35% ( 3-1 @ 3.08% ( 3-0 @ 2.52% ( 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 4-1 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 35.44% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0-0 @ 8.97% ( 2-2 @ 4.74% ( Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.58% | 0-1 @ 10.95% ( 1-2 @ 7.96% ( 0-2 @ 6.69% ( 1-3 @ 3.24% ( 0-3 @ 2.72% ( 2-3 @ 1.93% ( 1-4 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 2.48% Total : 36.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 71 | 17 | 54 | 77 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 48 | -29 | 16 |
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