Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 45.51%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 26.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.11%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 45.51% (  0.5) | 27.97% (  -0.1) | 26.52% (  -0.4) | 
| Both teams to score 44.69% (  -0) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 39.39% (  0.13) | 60.6% (  -0.13) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 19.3% (  0.1) | 80.69% (  -0.1) | 
| Chaves Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.37% (  0.31) | 26.62% (  -0.31) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.14% (  0.41) | 61.86% (  -0.41) | 
| Estoril Praia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 60.9% (  -0.27) | 39.1% (  0.27) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.18% (  -0.25) | 75.81% (  0.25) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 1-0 @ 13.77% (  0.06) 2-0 @ 9.11% (  0.12) 2-1 @ 8.56% (  0.05) 3-0 @ 4.02% (  0.09) 3-1 @ 3.78% (  0.05) 3-2 @ 1.77% (  0.01) 4-0 @ 1.33% (  0.04) 4-1 @ 1.25% (  0.03) Other @ 1.91% Total : 45.5% | 1-1 @ 12.93% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.4% (  -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.02% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.6% Total : 27.95% | 0-1 @ 9.78% (  -0.12) 1-2 @ 6.08% (  -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.59% (  -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.9% (  -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.44% (  -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.26% (  -0.01) Other @ 1.49% Total : 26.52% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 | 
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 | 
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 | 
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 | 
| 7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 | 
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 | 
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 | 
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 | 
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 | 
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 | 
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 | 
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 | 
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 | 
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 | 
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