| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Portimonense | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Arouca | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Chaves | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Pacos de Ferreira | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 46.86%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 25.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Chaves |
| 46.86% ( | 27.9% ( | 25.24% ( |
| Both teams to score 43.93% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.92% ( | 61.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.94% ( | 81.06% ( |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.83% ( | 26.17% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.75% ( | 61.25% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.49% ( | 40.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.89% ( | 77.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 14.21% ( 2-0 @ 9.53% ( 2-1 @ 8.61% ( 3-0 @ 4.26% ( 3-1 @ 3.85% ( 3-2 @ 1.74% ( 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 4-1 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 1.96% Total : 46.86% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0-0 @ 10.59% ( 2-2 @ 3.89% ( Other @ 0.57% Total : 27.89% | 0-1 @ 9.58% ( 1-2 @ 5.8% ( 0-2 @ 4.33% ( 1-3 @ 1.75% 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 2-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 1.31% Total : 25.24% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 12 | 39 | 53 |
| 2 | Porto | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 11 | 34 | 45 |
| 3 | Braga | 19 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 43 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 35 |
| 5 | Casa Pia | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 25 |
| 10 | Vizela | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 24 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 21 |
| 12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 21 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 19 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 19 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 9 |
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