Osasuna have often proved to be a tough nut to crack on their travels this season, picking up points in 11 of their 17 away league games. Atletico will be determined to bounce back from their shock loss to Elche, though, and we are backing Simeone's side to secure a narrow victory here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 83.81%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 4.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.29%) and 1-0 (12.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (2.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.7) 
-0.4) 
