

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8.05%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Braga | 
| 29.35% (  0.01) | 26.35% (  0) | 44.3% (  -0.02) | 
| Both teams to score 51.01% (  -0) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 46.64% (  -0.01) | 53.36% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 25.1% (  -0.01) | 74.9% (  0.01) | 
| Santa Clara Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.09% (  0) | 32.91% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.51% (  0) | 69.49% (  -0) | 
| Braga Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 76.04% (  -0.01) | 23.96% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.8% (  -0.02) | 58.2% (  0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Santa Clara | Draw | Braga | 
| 1-0 @ 8.77% (  0) 2-1 @ 6.96% (  0) 2-0 @ 4.87% (  0) 3-1 @ 2.58% (  0) 3-2 @ 1.84% 3-0 @ 1.8% (  0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 29.35% | 1-1 @ 12.52% 0-0 @ 7.89% (  0) 2-2 @ 4.97% Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.35% | 0-1 @ 11.26% 1-2 @ 8.95% (  -0) 0-2 @ 8.05% (  -0) 1-3 @ 4.26% (  -0) 0-3 @ 3.83% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.37% (  -0) 1-4 @ 1.52% (  -0) 0-4 @ 1.37% (  -0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 44.3% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 | 
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 | 
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 | 
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 | 
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 | 
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 | 
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 | 
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 | 
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 | 
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 | 
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 | 
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 | 
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 | 
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