Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 48.47%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 2-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.