Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 56.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.49%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
19.8% | 23.42% | 56.78% |
Both teams to score 50.09% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.27% | 49.73% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.26% | 71.74% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.57% | 39.43% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.88% | 76.12% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.69% | 17.31% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.34% | 47.66% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 6.35% 2-1 @ 5.18% 2-0 @ 2.96% 3-1 @ 1.61% 3-2 @ 1.41% 3-0 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.37% Total : 19.8% | 1-1 @ 11.14% 0-0 @ 6.82% 2-2 @ 4.55% Other @ 0.91% Total : 23.42% | 0-1 @ 11.96% 0-2 @ 10.49% 1-2 @ 9.77% 0-3 @ 6.14% 1-3 @ 5.71% 0-4 @ 2.69% 2-3 @ 2.66% 1-4 @ 2.51% 2-4 @ 1.17% 0-5 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.73% Total : 56.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 47 |
2 | Braga | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 40 |
3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 39 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 32 |
5 | Casa Pia | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 30 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 27 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 |
8 | Vizela | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 24 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 24 |
10 | ChavesChaves | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 21 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 21 |
13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 20 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 19 |
15 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 14 |
17 | Maritimo | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 13 |
18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 9 |
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