Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 78.79%. A draw had a probability of 13.2% and a win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 8.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.02%), while for a Sporting Covilha win it was 1-2 (2.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.