Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 53.67%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 18.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.07%) and 1-2 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.64%), while for a Sporting Covilha win it was 1-0 (8.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.