Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 85.09%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 4.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 4-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.87%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (1.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.