Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 52.04%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 25.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Gateshead |
| 52.04% ( | 22.68% ( | 25.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.79% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.67% ( | 40.33% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.3% ( | 62.7% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.4% ( | 15.6% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.42% ( | 44.58% ( |
| Gateshead Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.84% ( | 29.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.9% ( | 65.1% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Gateshead |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 1-0 @ 8.45% ( 2-0 @ 7.85% ( 3-1 @ 5.99% ( 3-0 @ 4.86% ( 3-2 @ 3.69% ( 4-1 @ 2.78% ( 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 4-2 @ 1.72% 5-1 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 3.72% Total : 52.04% | 1-1 @ 10.41% 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 3-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.68% | 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0-1 @ 5.61% 0-2 @ 3.45% ( 1-3 @ 2.64% ( 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 3.3% Total : 25.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 27 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 34 | 34 | 68 |
| 2 | Bromley | 28 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 56 |
| 3 | Barnet | 28 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 57 | 40 | 17 | 55 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 43 |
| 6 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 42 |
| 7 | Rochdale | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 41 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 40 |
| 9 | Halifax TownHalifax | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 40 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 34 |
| 13 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 32 |
| 15 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 31 |
| 17 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 30 |
| 18 | York City | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 30 |
| 19 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Woking | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Ebbsfleet | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 27 |
| 22 | Fylde | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 25 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 24 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 20 |
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