Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 2-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.