MX23RW : Wednesday, February 7 18:33:13| >> :120:29366:29366:
Watford logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK
Vicarage Road
Chesterfield
Watford
2 - 1
Chesterfield
Rajovic (76'), Dele-Bashiru (90+5')
Kone (38'), Hoedt (45+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Quigley (28')
Quigley (26'), Cook (27'), Banks (45+1'), Naylor (52'), Boot (81')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Watford and Chesterfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Plymouth 3-3 Watford
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Chesterfield 3-2 Solihull
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in National League

We said: Watford 3-0 Chesterfield

While this is something of a free hit for Chesterfield, they will also want to do themselves justice. Nevertheless, facing Watford on away territory is a big step up, and we anticipate that the Hornets will come through with a comfortable win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 54.07%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Watford.

Result
WatfordDrawChesterfield
54.07% (0.057000000000002 0.06) 22.1% (0.010000000000002 0.01) 23.82% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Both teams to score 60.14% (-0.145 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.9% (-0.14899999999999 -0.15)39.1% (0.143 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.57% (-0.157 -0.16)61.42% (0.151 0.15)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.51% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)14.49% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.52% (-0.064 -0.06)42.47% (0.058 0.06)
Chesterfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.33% (-0.142 -0.14)29.66% (0.137 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.29% (-0.172 -0.17)65.7% (0.166 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Watford 54.07%
    Chesterfield 23.82%
    Draw 22.09%
WatfordDrawChesterfield
2-1 @ 9.75% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.3% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 8.02% (0.036 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.28% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.81% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 2.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.84% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.17% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
5-0 @ 0.96% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 54.07%
1-1 @ 10.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.029 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.55% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 22.09%
1-2 @ 6.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.22% (0.016 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.17% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.48% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.4% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.29% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 23.82%

How you voted: Watford vs Chesterfield

Watford
63.6%
Draw
11.4%
Chesterfield
25.0%
44
rhs 2.0
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3Arsenal23154447222549
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5Tottenham HotspurSpurs23135549351444
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7West Ham UnitedWest Ham2310673636036
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton239864238435
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle231031048371133
10Wolverhampton WanderersWolves239593737032
11Chelsea2394103839-131
12Bournemouth227693041-1127
13Fulham2375113038-826
14Crystal Palace2366112640-1424
15Brentford2264123239-722
16Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest2356122841-1321
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20Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd2324171959-4010

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