Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Herediano had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.98%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest Herediano win was 2-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Toluca in this match.