

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 59.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 17.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Porto |
| 17.91% ( | 22.19% ( | 59.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.63% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.67% ( | 47.34% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.45% ( | 69.56% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.85% ( | 40.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.21% ( | 76.79% ( |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.61% ( | 15.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.81% ( | 44.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 2-1 @ 4.82% ( 2-0 @ 2.57% ( 3-1 @ 1.46% ( 3-2 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 17.91% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 2-2 @ 4.51% ( Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.19% | 0-1 @ 11.56% ( 0-2 @ 10.82% ( 1-2 @ 9.87% ( 0-3 @ 6.75% ( 1-3 @ 6.16% ( 0-4 @ 3.16% ( 1-4 @ 2.88% ( 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 2-4 @ 1.31% ( 0-5 @ 1.18% ( 1-5 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.31% Total : 59.9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
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